![]() ![]() That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll get the saves, though. Both were spectacular in 2022, but Ottavino’s underlying numbers were a bit more reassuring. They were going to be the setup men, and now they figure to handle both the setup and closer roles between them. But we can start to make some guesses.Īdam Ottavino and David Robertson - each 37 years old, by the way - are the best, most proven arms in the bullpen now. It has been less than 24 hours since Díaz's leg buckled in Miami, so manager Buck Showalter and the Mets have understandably not detailed their entire plan for dealing with the loss. The rotation was thought to be the biggest risk (maybe it still is), but Díaz’s injury immediately cuts the whole enterprise down to a less daunting size for other NL contenders. The Mets had a clear window for 20 built around spectacular but aging starting pitchers, a locked down lineup and Díaz. Cohen can (and probably will) go out and find stars to sign when they depart, retire or decline, but it is often just not possible to acquire players as good as Scherzer and Verlander. And both are already extreme outliers on the aging front. Scherzer will be a free agent after 2024. Instead of two guaranteed cracks at a World Series run with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Díaz soaking up crucial innings, the Mets are effectively down to one guaranteed year with all of them under contract. On the other hand, realistically, the Mets were built to peak in 20. On one hand, that shows a fairly obvious commitment to winning that presumably will hold for the four remaining years of Díaz's deal, when he can hopefully pitch as well or nearly as well as he did the past three seasons. Cohen and GM Billy Eppler built a 101-win team last year and are upping the ante in 2023 with the biggest payroll in baseball history. Zoomed out, the damage to the Mets’ grand ambitions is less quantifiable but perhaps more devastating. It’s plenty possible to reach the postseason with a subpar bullpen - the Phillies ranked 22nd last season - but it’s not anyone’s idea of a good, fun plan. Last year, even with Díaz's heroics, the Mets had MLB’s 11th-best park-adjusted bullpen ERA. The Mets’ bullpen depth options are also stretched thin by other injuries, most notably to Jose Quintana in the starting rotation. Now, it should be noted that there are other forces in play besides Díaz. Without him, the Mets bullpen now ranks 20th on FanGraphs’ depth charts, sandwiched between the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs. Since a rocky 2019 introduction to the Mets, Díaz has been sparkling, logging a 2.27 ERA, 70 saves and an MLB-best 42.7% strikeout rate across 150 1/3 innings. That’s a remarkable line for an inherently conservative projection system to spit out, but it was well earned. He was projected to run a 2.36 ERA across about 60 innings, striking out more than 40% of the batters he faced. Díaz, unsurprisingly, carried a huge chunk of that expected value. A week ago, FanGraphs’ depth chart projections viewed the Mets bullpen as MLB’s third-best unit heading into the season, behind the Atlanta Braves and basically tied with the San Diego Padres. The gist is the same either way: a whole lot. You can answer this question with an eye toward granular 2023 projections or the sweeping narrative of the Mets’ quest to build a juggernaut under team owner Steve Cohen. How much will Edwin Díaz's injury hurt the Mets? But Díaz's injury raises several big questions before Opening Day has even arrived. With a massive payroll and star-studded roster, their target is undoubtedly still the World Series. And now the Mets will have to trudge forward without a key piece of the team and clubhouse. ![]()
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